The big-time week picking NFL games didn’t come in Week 8, but it was right there in front of me.
But two games went bad in the final seconds, two games I handicapped the right way but lost out in end-of-game garbage covers for the other side.
The first happened Thursday night when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got a late garbage touchdown thanks to two major penalties keeping the drive alive. Then the last one came when the Baltimore Ravens gave up 10 late points to let the Arizona Cardinals get the back-door cover.
That turned my ATS record from what would have been a sterling 10-5-1 to a dismal 8-7-1. That stinks. That has my season record at 58-60-4. I did go 11-5 straight up, which raises that record to 73-49.
Let’s hope their are no back-door covers this week for me — unless, of course, they go my way.
Tennessee Titans (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
Rookie Will Levis was special in his first NFL start, but this is a big challenge against the Steelers defense on the road on a short week. Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett said he will play with a rib injury, but how limited will he be? Their offensive line was awful last week, and that will play true here. Levis will play well enough to lead the Titans to a victory.
Pick: Titans 23, Steelers 17
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) (in Germany)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, fubo)
The Chiefs are coming off a loss at Denver, one where the offense didn’t look that good. Miami impressed in beating New England, but they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record yet. This is a big chance. I just don’t think it will happen. Patrick Mahomes will get the best of the Dolphins defense as he gets back going right after his flu game last week.
Pick: Chiefs 30, Dolphins 26
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Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Vikings will start rookie Jarran Hall in this game, which will be a challenge for their offense. Atlanta could be making a change at quarterback as well since Desmond Ridder was benched last week. The Falcons will limit Hall and win this game — no matter who plays quarterback for them.
Pick: Falcons 27, Vikings 13
Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Ravens beat the Cardinals in lackluster style last week, while Seattle came back to beat the Browns and P.J. Walker. The Seattle defense is improving every week, and adding Leonard Williams will help, but this is a long trip against a team that can score. Look for Lamar Jackson to play better than he did last week.
Pick: Ravens 27, Seahawks 18
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Cardinals are going in the wrong direction after a solid start, but this might be who they are. The Browns lost to the Seahawks last week, but played much better on defense than the week before. That will be a tough challenge for Cardinals quarterback Clayton Tune. The Browns are the much better team here and they are at home. They get it done.
Pick: Browns 30, Cardinals 20
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is consecutive road games for the Rams after they were dominated by the Cowboys last week. And Matthew Stafford is dinged up. The Packers didn’t look good in losing at home to the Vikings last week, but their season is on the line here, and I think they will play that way.
Pick: Packers 27, Rams 19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bucs have lost three straight as the offense has struggled lately. The Texans are coming off a loss to the Panthers where their offense didn’t play that well. The Bucs will have three days of extra rest and I think that will help the offense get back on track. They take a tight one.
Pick: Bucs 24, Texans 23
Washington Commanders at New England Patriots (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Commanders have major issues on defense, and then traded away their two top edge players this week. But the New England offense is limited. So what gives? I think at home the Patriots are the pick. When two bad teams meet, take the home team, especially against one with a bad defense.
Pick: Patriots 24, Commanders 16
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bears are playing consecutive road games, which can be a challenge. They could have Justin Fields back, which is needed. The Saints got their offense going against the Colts with Derek Carr playing well. That will continue here against a Bears defense that is just OK.
Pick: Saints 28, Bears 13
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (+2.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Panthers got their first victory last week with the offense showing some life late to get the game-winning field goal. That should carry over against a Colts defense that has had major issues the past two weeks. The Colts are inconsistent on offense with Gardner Minshew, which plays out here too. The Panthers get their second victory.
Pick: Panthers 23, Colts 20
New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Raiders are having major issues on offense, but the Giants are coming off a game with minus-9 yards passing. That almost doesn’t seem possible by today’s NFL rules. But it happened. So who wins here? The Giants might be down to a third-team quarterback, so I’ll go with the Raiders. They can score 20, can’t they?
Pick: Raiders 20, Giants 13
Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is an enormous early-season game in the NFC East. The Eagles have the best record in the NFL, but they still haven’t looked great. The Cowboys have righted things the past two games, especially on offense. I think that shows up as the Cowboys pull off the upset with Dak Prescott having a big game.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Eagles 29
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Bengals have come back to life after the slow start due to Joe Burrow’s calf injury early in the season, which really impacted the offense. Buffalo played looser against the Bucs last week and they have three extra days of rest. This will be a fun offensive game that will go right down to the wire. It’s tight, but the Bengals will win it late.
Pick: Bengals 31, Bills 30
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at New York Jets
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)
The Chargers seemed to right things against the Bears, but this is a long trip against a good defensive team. That will cause problems for Justin Herbert. The Chargers defense has been bad for most of the season, but they showed some improvement last week. Look for the Chargers to come in here and get the best of it as Herbert does enough to pull it out late.
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